Price Of Palm Oil In Malaysia Economics Essay

Price Of Palm Oil In Malaysia Economics Essay INTRODUCTION The most commercial product that contributed to our national income is palm oil product. Nowadays, palm oil is the one of the major oils and fats that is produced and traded in the world where Malaysia is the second largest exporter to produce the palm oil in this world in terms of production and export and this sector contributes more than 30% of the total income to our country. But in 2003, Malaysia become largest producer and Indonesia is a second largest. Because of many land in Indonesia opened to plant the palm oil and exceed the hectares of plantation in Malaysia, Indonesia become the largest producer in the world follow by Malaysia. It is all because of the tremendous increase in production and export volume of palm oil to fulfill the world demand of palm oil. The success story of the Malaysian Palm oil industry was due to the synergistic effort of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and the industry in carrying out RD and marketing activities. These non-stop efforts have led to higher production and exports, making palm oil always readily available in the world market. But oil palm also facing challenges in enhancing productivity, increasing workflow efficiency and maximizing profits. As the second leader in the palm oil industry, it is worthwhile monitoring the development of its crude palm oil (CPO) production and price. But the prices of palm oil not pegged by the government, it always fluctuated every time year depending on the economic condition. There are many uses of palm oil in our daily life, such as edible oil and soap. Nowadays, the value of palm oil has been increasing quickly because of the decreasing the import tariffs for palm oil and the land for palm oil plantation also increased to expand their business to produce more product of palm oil. Other than that, the Malaysian palm oil also face some effective competitive strength. There are many factor that influence the price of palm oil such as hectares of land, supply of palm oil, export of palm oil, and consumption of palm oil. But before make this research, we must obtain data from other resources to examine the model to test it with econometric model. This study will provide data for 29 years annually in terms of prices of palm oil its production, export and its consumption. Econometric model were developed to analysis the relationship between this prices of palm oil and its economic variable whether the relationship is significant or not. This economic variable test one by one to check the relationship. This study will determine by ordinary least square method to test the independent variable. LITERATURE REVIEW The previous study have been made to understand the impact of palm oil based-biodiesel demand on palm oil prices (Ramli; Roslan and Ayatollah, K 2007). Nowadays biodiesel has become an important fuel to our society. It is because of the growing concern for the environment. Demand for the biodiesel has become higher, and that effect to the volume of palm oil available in the market that putting its prices increased sharply since July 2006. That days, the prices of palm oil influenced by the stock, supply, production. From July 2006 onwards, biofuel become a serious fuel of his renewable production. Biodiesel mainly from palm has increased the demand and altered the economics of palm oil. This study using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). This method have been proven to forecast the palm oil prices from July 2006 to end 2007. Supporting to this journal, the prices of petroleum and vegetable oil down to be moving slowly together. (Anna Awad, Fatimah, 2009). This previous studies have been made to find the long term relationship the prices of crude oil and vegetable oil. They using the Engle-Granger two-stage to do the method. This study use data over the period from January 1983 to March 2008. The two products show the result of the strong evidence of a long relationship. Began in the 1970s until 21 century, the price for all commodities increased between January 2000 and March 2008. The increased of the prices caused by the increased petroleum price more than 300%, while food prices increased 107% during the same period and vegetables oil increased of 192%. Besides that,(Mohd Nasir, 2003) said that Malaysia is the largest producer and Indonesia is the second largest producer. This two country is the exporter where they contribute 89.6% of palm oil trade in the world and 83.5 % of production. They also export crude palm oil (CPO) and other than that processed palm oil (PPO). The Malaysia exporting quantities of CPO increased from 0.4 million tones to 1.3 million tones in 2000 and 2001, followed by exports of Indonesian CPO increased from 1.8 to 2.0 million tones. Both country also contributed PPO which is the larger share of palm products. CPO and PPO in Malaysian were lower than Indonesia in 2001 and 2002. Both countries products imposed by the tariffs with the objectives initially raising revenue. For example, in Malaysia is to encouraging down stream while for Indonesia it reflected to consumer down. Both country have been imposed taxes on export, and there is a difference way the exports duty payable. (Ahmad Borhan and Mohd Arif, 2009) said that the prices of palm oil and it comprises crude palm oil and processed palm oil is a strong indicator of the level of palm oil stock. The stock of palm oil has been hovered around 1 million tones. With this amount, the volume has become the psychological which prices tend to be bullish and bearish, respectively. The end of stock fully depends on the export of palm oil and its production. While local consumption and import play minor roles. The Malaysian palm oil industry has estimated that 1.8 million tones could become the new level of palm oil stock. But it all based on change in the supply and demand factors. (James, 2008) said that the prices of crude palm oil (CPO) has a strong relationship with stock according to the conventional economics. The economics of oils and fats had changed in the last two years, that cause both prices and rising in tandem according to traditional economic theory. Because of created the new role played by biodiesel, the strong signs of a linkages also created. The palm oil prices should take into one account of two factors, the petroleum price and the amount of oil stocks. The price band can determines by prices of petroleum. While the stocks can show high or low palm oil prices. Malaysias economic development has indeed been impressive by the contribution of the palm oil industry. (Sabri, Salmiah,Faizah and Nik Abdullah, 2008). It also changing the market trends and rapid development and has continued to pose challenge. The development of oil and fats industry are provides and has undergone in terms of world balance. In the previous journal, (Mohd Basri, Mohd Arif, and Jamil, 2008) said that in the past, there have been spikes in the palm oil prices, especially to the demand and supply imbalance of oils and fats. But since mid 2006, spikes have become more sustained. Besides that, spikes also been attributed to the supply and demand of edible oils and fats and also to the increasing demand for the fuel. Because of the increased of palm oil, the demand curve shifted to the right. The prices of oils have been increased slightly. (Ayat K Faizah, Ramli Abdullah and Nurul Hufaidah, 2007) study on how to examines volatility spill over. The study focus on between the domestic prices of palm oil and what major factor to the prices volatility. From the research, palm oil has moderate price volatility. And effort should be made to sustained the price of crude palm oil (CPO) to minimize volatility in other prices caused of the prices of (CPO) become a price leader among the other palm oil products. There was a model to developed to forecast prices of palm oil products in domestic. (Ramli and Mohd Alias, 2006). Malaysia also known the worlds biggest exporter of the palm oil and associated with palm oil. Because of the largest exporter the world, it become important for the country to lead the commoditys production and its price and can be used to determine the country revenue or in process of decision making. The objective of this paper is to analyses them econometrically and to forecast. The paper forecast that in the future, the production of palm oil can increased. By 2020, the production of palm oil can reach 22 million tones. Prices of palm oil also can fluctuated but in the future, its amount of prices increasing gradually. (Basri; Mohd Fauzi; Mohd Noor Mamat and Rosli, 2007) analyses the impact of lifting the export tax on Malaysian crude palm oil. Firstly, the equation is developed, especially on processed palm oil (PPO) and crude palm oil(CPO). The study comes out with the conceptual model of the Malaysian palm oil market model, such as the palm oil supply, oil palm area, imports and exports of palm oil products, domestic consumption, domestic price relationship and stocks IntermediationConceptual Framework. Independent variable Dependent var. Factor/supporting Price of palm oil Relationship Production (supply) Export Consumption Land area (Hectares) Mediating Independent variable There are 4 factor that influences the price of palm oil. There are production (supply), export, consumption and land area in hectares. This independent variable also can support the price of palm oil. Production can influences the prices of palm oil by the supply in the market, the more supply in the market, the more it can influences the prices of palm oil. It mean that, if the supply exceed the demand of the market, many unit of production are waste because of the demand not equal to the unit of production in the market. So to increase the demand in the market, firm can reduces prices of the production in order to attract the demand of the market. Low prices of the production can increased the demand of the production in the market. Export also can influences the prices of palm oil in the market by having a export more than import in the market can make a country deficit in terms of profit. Same like production, but export trade in other country and make a international business in order to gain profit. If have much demand in palm oil from other country, it means that, we should export more to achieved the demand from other country. From this situation, our country can take advantages to increase the prices of palm oil respectively. Consumption also can influences the prices of palm oil. It depends on how the consumer fully utilized the use of palm oil. If the consumer already knew the use of the palm oil, easy to them to know how important the palm oil in our society. Because of that, the consumer will ask for the palm oil and directly increased the demand for palm oil. Other than that, land area of plantation also can influences the prices of palm oil. If we plant more trees of palm oil in land, we are producing more palm oil in the market. If the supply of the palm oil in the market exceed than demand, than many surplus to that product. So to overcome this problem, firm must reduced the prices of palm oil to attract consumer to buy the palm oil. But it is good to the firm if the demand more than supply, then the firm can increased the price of palm oil in order to gain profit. Dependent variable The price of palm oil is depend to this four factor, this four factor can influences the prices of palm oil whether wants to increased or decreased. DATA METHODOLOGY LEAST SQUARE METHOD (SINGLE REGRESSION) and (MULTIPLE REGRESSION) The framework developed in this study is drawn both from econometric method (which is based on the economic theory) and the system dynamics approach. This section discusses the econometric model using least square method. Its to correlate and examine the relationships among dependent variable and independent variable. It is a economic theory form with statistical methods. Factor determinants of prices of palm oil in Ringgit Malaysia (RM). consists of 4 factor that influence the price of palm oil, there are production (supply), export in tones, consumption of palm oil and land area of plantation of palm oil in hectares. The first step is finding time series data from 1980 to 2009, which influence the price of palm oil to make a research and then describe it according to the econometric model. To regress the econometric model we must use the data which influence the prices of palm oil. So this 4 factor is the important data to make a research. After regress, we can identified relationship between dependent and independent variables. These 4 factor also known as independent variable and price of palm oil also known as dependent variable which price of palm oil depend on this 4 independent variable whether to increase or decrease. The prices of palm always fluctuate depend on this 4 independent variable. To test this independent variable had a relationship between price or not, the econometric model by using least square method use to test one by one of this independent variable whether this independent variable has a relationship between dependent variable. After test this econometric model, we look to the T-statistics, R-squared, Durbin-Watson stat. if t-stat are less than 2, this means that there is no relationship between independent variable and dependent variable and also known as is not significant. If more than 2, there is a relationship between independent variable and dependent variable. After test one by one, we should regress all dependent variable using multiple regress because of explanatory variable is more than one to check whether all independent variable significant or not. 4. MODEL LISTING AND FINDING Least square method-POPt=+bX Between dependent variable and independent variable Variable C Std-error T-stat R-Squared DW-stat Prob PROD 483.2153 1.51E05 -3.55 0.310563 0.264663 0.0014 EXP 626.5528 0.000104 -2.42 0.173625 0.311140 0.0220 CONS 435.8310 01.73E-05 -3.64 0.321860 0.254297 0.0011 L.AREA 97.77170 1.86E-05 7.67 0.678609 0.571303 0.0000 Analysis of data: Used e-view to regress and estimation using Ordinary least square based on dependent variable and independent variables from the data collected. PPOt=price of palm oil in the market PROD=production of palm oil(supply) EXP=export of palm oil to the world demand (tones) CONS=consumption of palm oil in this market L.AREA=landarea of palm oil plantation in Malaysia (hectares) Result of regression between POPt and PROD Dependent variable: POPt and Independent variable: PROD POPt=483.2153-5.37E-05t t-statistic=-3.55.ignore sign negative, accept Ho, because there is a relationship between price and production because t-statistic shows that it is significant and above 2. So production can influence the price of palm oil respectively. R-Squared =0.310563 Explanation. 31.05% of the changes in the dependent variables can be explained by the independent variables. 68.95% cannot be explained by the regression analysis due to some omission of independent variables. Std-error=1.51E05 Explanation. The smaller the value of SEE, the closer the data points/actual points to the regression line. DW-statistics=0.264663 Explanation. There is a problem in auto-correlation because DW show value less than 2. Probability=0.0014 Explanation. The variable is significant at 0.05 (5%) significant level or 95% confidence level. If the probability is less than 0.05, it means that 95% confidence interval accepted and there is a relationship between dependent variable and independent variable. Result of regression between POPt and EXP Dependent variable: POPt and Independent variable: EXP POPt=626.5528-0.000252t t-statistic=-2.42. ignore sign negative, also accept Ho, because there also a relationship between price and export because t-statistic shows that it is significant and above 2. So export also can influence the price of palm oil respectively. R-Squared=0.173625 Explanation. 17.36% of the changes in the dependent variables can be explained by the independent variables. 82.64% cannot be explained by the regression analysis due to some omission of independent variables. Std-error=0.000104 Explanation. The smaller the value of SEE, the closer the data points/actual points to the regression line. DW-statistics=0.311140 Explanation. There also have a problem in auto correlation because DW show value less than 2. Probability=0.0220 Explanation. The variable is significant at 0.05 (5%) significant level or 95% confidence level. If the probability less than 0.05, it means that 95% confidence interval accepted and there is a relationship among dependent variable and independent variable. Result of regression between POPt and CONS Dependent variable: POPt and Independent variable: CONS POPt=435.8310-6.31E-05t t-statistic=-3.64. ignore sign negative. accept Ho, because there is a relationship between price and export because t-statistic shows that it is no significant and above 2. So consumption can influence the price of palm oil respectively. R-Squared=0.321860 Explanation. 32.18% of the changes in the dependent variables can be explained by the independent variables. 67.82% cannot be explained by the regression analysis due to some omission of independent variables. Std-error=01.73E-05 Explanation. The smaller the value of SEE, the closer the data points/actual points to the regression line. DW-statistics=0.254297 Explanation. There is a problem in auto correlation because DW show value less than 2. Probability=0.0011 Explanation. This variable also significant 0.05 (5%) significant level 95% confidence level. If probability less than 0.05, it means that 95% confidence interval accepted and there is a relationship among dependent variable and independent variable. Result of regression between POPt and LANDAREA Dependent variable: POPt and independent variable: L.AREA POPt=97.77170+0.000143t t-statistic=7.67. accept Ho, because there is a relationship between prices and landarea because t-statistic shows that it is significant and above 2. So landarea can influence the price of palm oil respectively. R-Squared=0.678609 Explanation. 67.86% of the changes in the dependent variables can be explained by the independent variables. 32.14% cannot be explained by the regression analysis due to some omission of independent variables Std-error=1.86E-05 Explanation. The smaller the value of SEE, the closer the data points/actual points to the regression line. DW-statistics=0.571303 Explanation. Also have a problem in auto correlation because DW show value less than 2 Probability=0.0000 Explanation. The variable is significant at 0.05 (5%) significant level or 95% confidence level. If the probability less than 0.05, it means that 95% confidence interval accepted and there is a relationship between dependent variable and independent variable. Multiple Regression Test using first difference Dependent variable=POPt Coefficient Probability Dlnpdc -2.234175 0.0724 Dlnland 0.417220 0.1939 Dlnexp 1.778560 0.0036 Dlncnsptn 0.794493 0.1748 C -0.041683 0.4468 R-squared=0.520161 Durbin Watson=1.511417 Dlnprice=-0.041683+0.794493+1.778560+0.417220-2.234175 We using the first difference method because we want to make the data significant. Before regress the data using first difference, we must log all the data to make the probability below than 0.005, in order to make the data significant. After regress, we found that only probability for Dlnexp less than 0.005. Mean that only dlnexp significant and other independent variable not significant because over than 0.005. Other independent variable not significant because of multicollinearity and autocorrelation problem. Multicollinearity defined that, there is no linear relationships among the explanatory variables. Autocorrelation can be defined as correlation between members of observations ordered in time (as in time series data) CONCLUSION AND RESULT Malaysian is the second producer in the world who produce palm oil. These production can improved our country economy by exporting the palm oil market to other country because our country contribute 89.6 of palm oil trade in the world. Palm oil have many used in our daily life, used of palm oil influence the demand of palm oil in market. More demand of palm oil in market, more increased the price of palm oil per tones. After finished doing this proposal, there are 4 factor that determinant the price of palm oil in Malaysian palm oil market. This 4 factor are production of palm oil, export of palm oil, consumption of palm oil and hectares of plantation of palm oil. This 4 factor test one by one to check whether there is a relationship between this factor to the price. To test it, we use least square method in econometrics. And this all four factor can influence the price of palm oil because t-statistic more than 2. Multiple regression also has been test, and only one independent variable was significant and other independent variable not significant.

2nd Midterm Sample Exam

Sample Term Test 2A 1. A variable X has a distribution which is described by the density curve shown below: What proportion of values of X fall between 1 and 6? (A) 0. 550 (B) 0. 575 (C) 0. 600 (D) 0. 625 (E) 0. 650 2. Which of the following statements about a normal distribution is true? (A) The value of  µ must always be positive. (B) The value of ? must always be positive. (C) The shape of a normal distribution depends on the value of  µ. (D) The possible values of a standard normal variable range from ? 3. 49 to 3. 49. (E) The area under a normal curve depends on the value of ?. 3.The values in parentheses are the probabilities of each team winning their respective game. Game Game Game Game Game 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Finland (0. 43) USA (0. 28) Japan (0. 11) Denmark (0. 33) France (0. 18) vs. vs. vs. vs. vs. Germany (0. 57) Switzerland (0. 72) Canada (0. 89) Sweden (0. 67) Scotland (0. 82) 20. The outcome of interest is the set of winners of the ? ve games. How many outcomes are con tained in the sample space? (A) 5 (B) 10 (C) 25 (D) 32 (E) 64 21. In a sports game, the â€Å"favourite† is the team with the higher probability of winning and the â€Å"underdog† is the team who is less likely to win.What is the probability that at least one underdog wins? (A) 0. 93 (B) 0. 74 (C) 0. 80 (D) 0. 67 (E) 0. 59 22. A recently married couple plans to have two children. The outcome of interest is the gender of each of the two children. Consider the event that exactly one of the couple’s children will be a boy. Which of the following is the complement of this event? (A) two boys (B) two girls (C) one girl (D) at least one girl (E) zero or two girls 23. A manufacturer of automobile batteries claims that the distribution of battery lifetimes has a mean of 54 months and a variance of 36 months squared.Suppose a consumer group decides to check the claim by purchasing a sample of 50 of these batteries and subjecting them to tests to determine their lifetime. Assuming the manufacturer’s claim is true, what is the probability that the sample has a mean lifetime less than 52 months? (A) 0. 1292 (B) 0. 3707 (C) 0. 0091 (D) 0. 4909 (E) 0. 3483 24. A recycling plant compresses aluminum cans into bales. The weights of the bales are known to follow a normal distribution with standard deviation eight pounds. In a random sample of 64 bales, what is the probability that the sample mean di? ers from the population mean by no more than one pound? A) 0. 3413 (B) 0. 4772 (C) 0. 6826 (D) 0. 9544 (E) 0. 1587 25. The monthly mortgage payment for recent home buyers in Winnipeg has a mean of $732, and a standard deviation of $421. A random sample of 125 recent home buyers is selected. The approximate probability that their average monthly mortgage payment will be more than $782 is: (A) 0. 9082 (B) 0. 4522 (C) 0. 4082 (D) 0. 0478 (E) 0. 0918 26. Weights of pears in an orchard follow a normal distribution with mean 195 grams and standard deviation 40 grams.A random sample of ? ve pears is selected. What is the probability that the total weight of the pears is greater than one kilogram (i. . , 1,000 grams)? (A) 0. 2795 (B) 0. 3897 (C) 0. 2451 (D) 0. 3264 (E) 0. 4129 27. The fact that the sample mean does not tend to over- or underestimate the population mean makes the sample mean: (A) resistant. (B) unbiased. (C) e? cient. (D) a statistic. (E) a parameter. 28. A random variable X follows a uniform distribution with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. We take a random sample of size 100 from this distribution and calculate the sample mean X. The sampling distribution of X is: (A) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 173. B) uniform with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. (C) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 0173. (D) uniform with mean 3 and standard deviation 0. 173. (E) approximately normal with mean 3 and standard deviation 1. 73. 29. The sampling distribution of a statistic is : (A) the density function of the population from which the sample was selected. (B) the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population. (C) the distribution of the population from which the sample is drawn. D) approximately normally distributed if the sample is large enough, regardless of the shape of the population from which the sample is drawn.(E) all of the above. 30. Which of the following variables has a binomial distribution? (I) You repeatedly roll a fair die. X = number of rolls needed to observe the number 6 for the third time. (II) Tim Hortons is holding its annual â€Å"Roll Up the Rim to Win† promotion. Customers can check under the rim of a co? ee cup to see if they have won a prize. You buy one cup of co? ee from Tim Hortons each day for a week. X = number of times you win a prize during the week. III) A quality control inspector in a factory routinely examines samples of ? ber-optic cable being produced to check for defects. The inspector examines a 100-foot length of cable. X = number of defects found on the cable. (A) I only (B) II only (C) I and II only (D) II and III only (E) I, II, and III 31. There are four patients on the neo-natal ward of a local hospital who are monitored by two sta? members. Suppose the probability (at any one time) of a patient requiring attention by a sta? member is 0. 3. Assuming the patients behave independently, what is the probability at any one time that there will not be su? cient sta? o attend to all patients who need them? (A) 0. 0756 (B) 0. 1104 (C) 0. 0837 (D) 0. 0463 (E) 0. 2646 The next two questions (32 and 33) refer to the following: According to the Canadian Blood Services website, 9% of Canadians have type B blood. 32. If a sample of 8 donors is selected, what is the probability that less than two of them will have type B blood? (A) 0. 8424 (B) 0. 9711 (C) 0. 3721 (D) 0. 4703 (E) 0. 1576 33. Suppose we select a random sample of 175 blood donors and calculate the proportion p ? of individuals with type B blood. The standard deviation of p is: ? (A) 0. 0216 (B) 0. 0358 (C) 0. 0417 (D) 0. 0598 (E) 0. 0647The next two questions (34 and 35) refer to the following: It is known that 53% of students at a large university are female and 47% are male. 34. If we take a random sample of 12 students at the university, what is the probability that exactly seven of them are female? (A) 0. 1734 (B) 0. 1834 (C) 0. 1934 (D) 0. 2034 (E) 0. 2134 35. If we take a random sample of 200 students at the university, what is the approximate probability that less than half of them are male? (A) 0. 7291 (B) 0. 8023 (C) 0. 7852 (D) 0. 8508 (E) 0. 7517 Sample Term Test 2B 1. A random variable X is described by the density curve shown below: The probability of P (3 ?X ? 6) is equal to: (A) 0. 55 (B) 0. 45 (C) 0. 375 (D) 0. 40 (E) 0. 60 2. A random variable X follows a uniform distribution on the interval from 10 to 15. What proportion of values of X are greater than 13. 2? (A) 0. 18 (B) 0. 88 (C) 0. 36 (D) 0. 12 (E) 0. 28 3. Which of the following statements about a normal distribution is true? (A) The mean of a normal distribution must always be greater than zero. (B) For a standard normal distribution, P (Z < z) = P (Z > ? z) for any value z. (C) The height of a normal density curve must always be equal to one. (D) All values must fall within three standard deviations of the mean. E) The standard deviation of a normal distribution must always be greater than one. 4. A variable X follows a normal distribution with mean 10 and standard deviation 5. Another variable Y follows a normal distribution with mean 25 and standard deviation the 10. The maximum height of the density curve for X is (i) maximum height for the density curve for Y, and the area under the density curve for X is (ii) the area under the density curve for Y. (A) (i) greater than, (ii) less than (B) (i) less than, (ii) greater than (C) (i) equa l to, (ii) equal to (D) (i) greater than, (ii) equal to (E) (i) less than, (ii) less than 5.Weights of apples grown in an orchard are known to follow a normal distribution with mean 160 grams. It is known that approximately 99. 7% of apples have weights between 124 and 196 grams. What is the standard deviation of weights of all apples grown in the orchard? (A) 9 grams (B) 12 grams (C) 18 grams (D) 24 grams (E) 36 grams 6. A variable Z has a standard normal distribution. What is the value b such that P (b ? Z ? 0. 36) = 0. 2470? (A) ? 1. 22 (B) ? 0. 68 (C) ? 0. 27 (D) ? 0. 39 (E) ? 0. 55 The next two questions (7 to 8) refer to the following: Percentage grades in a large geography class follow a normal distribution with mean 67. and standard deviation 12. 5. 7. What proportion of students in the class receive percentage grades between 60 and 70? (A) 0. 2650 (B) 0. 2750 (C) 0. 2850 (D) 0. 2950 (E) 0. 3050 8. The professor decides to assign a grade of A+ to the students with the top 8% of the grades, and a grade of A to the next best 12%. What is the minimum percentage a student needs to earn a grade of A? (A) 77 (B) 78 (C) 79 (D) 80 (E) 81 9. The contents of bottles of water follow a normal distribution with mean  µ and standard deviation 4 ml. What proportion of bottles have ? ll volumes within 1 ml of the mean? (A) 0. 1974 (B) 0. 987 (C) 0. 6826 (D) 0. 4013 (E) unable to calculate without the value of  µ 10. A candy company manufactures hard candies in ? ve di? erent ? avours, according to the following probability distribution, where k is some constant: Cherry Root Beer Flavour Probability 0. 21 k Strawberry Orange Peppermint 0. 27 k 0. 14 If you select a candy at random, what is the probability that it will be fruit-? avoured? (A) 0. 48 (B) 0. 67 (C) 0. 68 (D) 0. 72 (E) 0. 86 11. Event A has probability of 0. 4 to occur and Event B has a probability of 0. 5 to occur. Their union (A or B) has a probability of 0. 7 to occur.Then: (A) A and B are mutually e xclusive. (B) A and B are not mutually exclusive. (C) A and B are independent. (D) A and B are dependent. (E) both (B) and (C). 12. You have two unfair coins. On any given ? ip, the ? rst coin has a 40% chance of landing on Heads and the second coin has a 25% chance of landing on Heads. If you ? ip both coins, what is the probability that at least one of them lands on Heads? (A) 0. 10 (B) 0. 45 (C) 0. 55 (D) 0. 65 (E) 0. 90 13. A fair six-sided die will be rolled. De? ne A to be the event that an even number is rolled and de? ne B to be the event that a prime number is rolled.Which of the following events is the intersection of A and B? (A) {2} (B) {2, 3, 5} (C) {2, 3, 4, 5, 6} (D) {3, 5} (E) {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} 14. Suppose it is known that 61% of Winnipeg adults read the Winnipeg Free Press, 29% read the Winnipeg Sun and 18% read both newspapers. What is the probability that a randomly selected adult in Winnipeg reads only one of the two papers (but not both)? Hint: Draw a Venn diag ram. (A) 0. 54 (B) 0. 50 (C) 0. 45 (D) 0. 72 (E) 0. 47 The next two questions (15 and 16) refer to the following: A hockey players compiles the following facts: †¢ Her team wins (W) 60% of their games. She scores a goal (G) in 30% of her games. †¢ She gets a penalty (P) in 40% of her games. †¢ In 38% of her games, her team wins and she scores a goal. †¢ In 24% of her games, her team wins and she gets a penalty. †¢ in 15% of her games, she scores a goal and gets a penalty. 15. In any given game, what is the probability that the player scores a goal or gets a penalty? (A) 0. 85 (B) 0. 55 (C) 0. 70 (D) 0. 65 (E) 0. 58 16. Which of the following statements is true? (A) W and G are independent. (B) G and P are mutually exclusive (disjoint). (C) W and P are independent. (D) W and G are mutually exclusive (disjoint). (E) G and P are independent. 7. Weights of oranges sold at a supermarket follow a normal distribution with mean 0. 22 pounds and standard deviation 0. 04 pounds. If you randomly select four oranges, what is the probability that their total weight is less than 1 pound? (A) 0. 9719 (B) 0. 8508 (C) 0. 9332 (D) 0. 7967 (E) 0. 8340 The next two questions (18 and 19) refer to the following: The time X taken by a cashier in a grocery store express lane follows a normal distribution with mean 90 seconds and standard deviation 20 seconds. 18. What is the ? rst quartile (Q1) of the distribution of X? (A) 73. 8 seconds (B) 85. 0 seconds (C) 69. 4 seconds (D) 81. seconds (E) 76. 6 seconds 19. What is the probability that the average service time for the next three customers is between 80 and 100 seconds? (Assume the next three customers can be considered a simple random sample. ) (A) 0. 6156 (B) 0. 4893 (C) 0. 7212 (D) 0. 5559 (E) impossible to calculate with the information given The next two questions (20 and 21) refer to the following: The amount X spent (in $) by customers in the grocery store express lane follow some right-skewed distri bution with mean $24 and standard deviation $15. 20. What is the probability that the average amount spent by the next three customers is more than $20? Assume the next three customers can be considered a simple random sample. ) (A) 0. 4619 (B) 0. 6772 (C) 0. 8186 (D) 0. 7673 (E) impossible to calculate with the information given 21. What is the probability that the next 40 customers spend less than $1,000 in total? (Assume the next 40 customers can be considered a simple random sample). (A) 0. 5199 (B) 0. 6064 (C) 0. 6628 (D) 0. 5784 (E) 0. 6331 22.The distribution of weights of chocolate bars produced by a certain machine is normal with mean 253 grams and standard deviation 3 grams. A sample of ? ve of these chocolate bars is selected. There is only a 2. % chance that the average weight of the sample will be below: (A) 250. 37 grams. (B) 254. 10 grams. (C) 252. 63 grams. (D) 251. 54 grams. (E) 249. 82 grams. The next two questions (23 and 24) refer to the following: A bimodal prob ability distribution is one with two distinct peaks. A random variable X follows a bimodal distribution with mean 15 and standard deviation 4, as shown below: 23. Suppose that you take a random sample of 10,000 observations from the population above and make a histogram. You expect the histogram to be: (A) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 004. (B) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (C) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (D) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. (E) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. 24. Suppose that you take 10,000 random samples of 10,000 observations from the population above and that for each sample, the mean x is calculated. A histogram of resulting x’s ? ? would be:(A) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 0004. B) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (C) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 0. 04. (D) bimodal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. (E) approximately normal with mean close to 15 and standard deviation close to 4. 25. The Central Limit Theorem states that: ? (A) when n gets large, the standard deviation of the sample mean X gets closer and v closer to ? / n. (B) regardless of the population distribution of a random variable X, when n gets large, ? the sampling distribution of X is approximately normal. C) if a random variable X follows a normal distribution, then when n gets large, the ? sampling distribution of X is exactly normal. ? (D) when n gets large, the sample mean X gets closer and closer to the population mean  µ. ? (E) when n gets large, the sample mean X becomes an unbiased estimator of the population mean  µ. 26. Which of the following variables has a binomial distribution? (A) You roll ? ve fair dice, each with face values of 1 through 6. X = total number of dots facing up on the ? ve dice. (B) An airplane carrying 100 passengers has two emergency exits, one at the front of the plane and one at the back.The airplane makes an emergency landing. X = number of people who leave the plane through the front exit. (C) A paper boy delivers the newspaper to every house on your block. X = number of houses that get their newspaper on time tomorrow morning. (D) You repeatedly ? ip two quarters simultaneously until both quarters land on Heads. X = number of ? ips required for both quarters to land on Heads. (E) A student randomly guesses the answer to each of the 40 multiple choice questions on this exam. X = number of multiple choice questions the student gets correct. 27. The probability that a certain machine will produce a defective item is 1/4.If a random sample of six items is taken from the output of this machine, what is the probability that there will be at least ? ve defectives in the sample? (A) 1 4096 (B) 3 4096 (C) 4 4096 (D) 18 4096 (E) 19 4096 28. Event A occurs with probability 0. 12. Event B occurs with probability 0. 88. If A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint) events, then (A) P(A and B) = 0. 11 (B) P(A and B) = 0. 00 (C) P(A or B) = 1. 00 (D) P(A or B) = 0. 11 (E) both (B) and (C) are correct 29. A random variable X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p. If the mean and the variance of X are 3. 6 and 2. 2 respectively, then the values of the parameters n and p are, respectively: (A) 6 and 0. 6. (B) 18 and 0. 2. (C) 24 and 0. 15. (D) 12 and 0. 3. (E) 12 and 0. 4. 30. A student driving to university must pass through seven sets of tra? c lights. Suppose it is known that each set of tra? c lights are red 35% of the time and that all lights function independently. What is the probability that the student will have to stop at two or more sets of lights on her to university? (A) 0. 6828 (B) 0. 2985 (C) 0. 4893 (D) 0. 7662 (E) 0. 5997 The next three questions (31 and 33) refer to the following: We have a small deck of ten cards.Five of the cards are red, three are blue and two are green. We randomly select four cards from the deck with replacement. That is, after we select a card and record the colour, we put the card back in the deck and thoroughly shu? e them before we select another card. 31. Let X be the number of blue cards that are selected. The distribution of X is: (A) binomial with parameters n = 4 and p = 0. 1. (B) binomial with parameters n = 10 and p = 0. 3. (C) binomial with parameters n = 10 and p = 0. 4. (D) binomial with parameters n = 4 and p = 0. 3. (E) normal with parameters  µ = 1. 2 and ? = 0. 92. 32. Let A be the event that the ? st selected card is the only red card in our four selections. Which of the following events is mutually exclusive (disjoint) from the event A? (A) Second card selected is blue. (B) No green cards are selected. (C) Third selected card is the on ly green. (D) Same number of red and blue cards are selected. (E) Same number of blue and green cards are selected. 33. What is the probability that the ? rst two selected cards are the same colour? (A) 0. 38 (B) 0. 25 (C) 0. 29 (D) 0. 33 (E) 0. 41 The next two questions (34 and 35) refer to the following: Suppose it is known that 8% of males are colour blind. 4. In a random sample of 20 males, what is the probability that exactly 3 of them are colour blind? (A) 0. 1212 (B) 0. 1313 (C) 0. 1414 (D) 0. 1515 (E) 0. 1616 35. In a random sample of 500 males, what is the approximate probability that at least 10% of them are colour blind? (A) 0. 03 (B) 0. 04 (C) 0. 05 (D) 0. 06 (E) 0. 07 Answers Question 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Term Test 2A A B A A B B B A B E A E C E B D C B D D C E C C E B B A D B C A A E B Term Test 2B A C B D B C E B A B E C A A B C C E A E C A D C B E E E D D D E A C C

A Brief Look at Terrence Vincent Powderly - 1461 Words

Terence Vincent Powderly was born to Irish immigrants in Carbondale, Pennsylvania on January 22, 1849. Powderly spent his childhood growing up in Pennsylvania and attending school until he began working for the Delaware and Hudson Railroad at the early age of 13, his educational career then ended. A few short years later, at the age of 17, Powderly become a machinist and pursued that line of work for eleven years. In 1871 Powderly joined the Machinists’ and Blacksmith’s Union and a year later was appointed the organization’s president. A few years later in 1874 Powderly joined another secretive organization named the Knights of Labor. He quickly progressed into a leadership role as Corresponding Secretary. In February of 1878 Powderly was elected for his first of three terms as Mayor of Scranton. A few months later, in 1879, he was elected the union’s highest leadership position, Grand Master Workman, until 1883 when he was titled General Master Wo rkman of the Knights of Labor. During his time as serving on leadership with the Knights of Labor, Powderly helped to increase the organization’s membership from around 80,000 members to 700,000 members in one year. During his role as General Master Workman, he made a drastic impact on the â€Å"power of labor in the United States†2 by his passion for the working class and the union. Powderly was a pro-labor activist whom supported six, eight-hour workdays a week that resulted in just pay. He believed that Sunday should be

The Economic Development Of China - 1130 Words

Introduction: In 1991, when Prime Minister Narasimha Rao agreed to take a loan from the International Monetary Fund to stave off a financial crisis we witnessed the low-point of the Indian economy. At that time, the country had dwindling foreign exchange reserves and was months away from defaulting on its debts. As part of the I.M.F. package, the government passed reforms such as devaluing the rupee, encouraging private sector competition, and deregulating the economy after 40 years of central planning. By opting for market-oriented reforms in 1991, India’s GDP has grown at a rate of 6.6% annually over the past 20 years. As a rapidly emerging economy and a member of the BRICS, we must continue to push our strategy of export led†¦show more content†¦Foreign trade can expedite the growth of an economy through the promotion of exports and development of national industries. As exports grow, India will be able to amass foreign exchange reserves to avoid currency and debt crises simil ar to those that struck India in 1991. Implementation and benefits: India is a country that is abundant in labor. Export-led industrialization can harness this enormous workforce and help to eradicate poverty. Furthermore, the government should subsidize nascent industries that have the potential to become major exporters. †¢ We must modernize the legal code, for us to have less stringent labor laws, which have limited labor force participation and slowed industrialization. Streamline the process of starting a business by reducing the bureaucracy and make laws more transparent to encourage private investment. †¢ Attract foreign direct investment to India for export-led industrialization to further India’s growth by making it easier to open, run, and grow a business. Providing a gateway for multinational companies to enter India will draw foreign capital into the country rather than scare off multinational firms with a difficult and burdensome regulatory environment. †¢ Encourage domestic companies to partner with multinational firms we can acquire foreign technology and knowledge, which will help boost the efficiency of our industries. †¢ Change our trade policies to reduce tariffs,